Egypt adjusted to a new normality on Sunday as the first day of the country's working week saw schools and businesses open for the first time in three weeks, and Cairo's streets were gridlocked not by protests but by the familiar crush of bleating traffic. Back to normal then, except that the constitution is suspended, parliament is dissolved and the military is running the country - for just six months, its commanders promise.
A brief scuffle broke out Sunday at Tahrir Square, epicenter of the protests that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, when soldiers tried to herd a small core of determined protesters out of the area to clear space for traffic.
The protesters resisted, saying they wouldn't leave until their demands for real democracy had been met. Uncertain about what to do in the face of unexpected resistance, the soldiers paused, as did onlookers, fearful that the famous unity between the Egyptian military and democracy protesters might fracture over something as trivial as traffic. Both sides stepped back from the brink, and within minutes a compromise had been reached: traffic was routed around half the square, and protesters returned to their chants. Onlookers clambered back on tanks to have their photos taken, and there were handshakes and hugs all around. (See TIME's exclusive photos of the dramatic action in Tahrir Square.)
"We trust the army," said Shady Gamal, a 22-year-old student who was trying in vain to stop waves of protesters from stepping on a freshly painted median on one of the main thoroughfares. Behind him, volunteers were applying fresh coats of paint to the square's curbs, part of a campaign to clean Cairo after the protests. They wore handmade signs that read, "Sorry for disturbance. We build Egypt." Gamal unfurled the rolled-up newspaper in his back pocket to read aloud a headline, "The Army Gives Assurances That It Will Protect Democracy and Give Power to the People." It was proof, he said, that the revolutionary movement had nothing to fear.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which has been running the country since Mubarak's ouster, pledged Saturday to oversee a peaceful transfer to civilian authority, and it announced Sunday that the constitution had been suspended and both houses of parliament had been dissolved. The military would stay in charge for six months, or until free and fair democratic elections could be held, said a military spokesman on state TV. (See how Egypt's future could change as the military takes over.)
While the troops, who are largely conscripts, may be at one with Egyptians who have taken to the streets in recent weeks, it is unclear if their commanders have the vision or even the desire to see democracy through. "There have been a lot of promises," says one protester who gives his name as Ahmed. "But no details, no facts. The military was the power behind Mubarak, so why would it want to give up that power?" (Comment on this story.)
Egypt's military has been the power behind the throne since it overthrew the British-backed monarchy in 1952. It is a respected institution with strong patriotic credentials, but it has done little to encourage real democratic progress. Presidents Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat and Mubarak all came from within its ranks. And it will be a long time before a civilian can be elected without military support, and even longer before the state can say it has true command of the military, says Sheila Carapico, chair of the political-science department at the American University in Cairo. "Some changes will have to be made, if only to get people out of Tahrir Square, but it's difficult to imagine what would induce the army to relinquish its ultimate role." (See the power players who may vie for the Egyptian presidency.)
Stability isn't the army's only concern: money matters too. Egypt's half-million-strong armed forces receive $1.3 billion a year from the U.S., and they maintain significant investments in the national economy. Soldiers staff military-owned companies that produce everything from olive oil to washing machines, televisions, cement and even the ubiquitous Safi brand of bottled water. The military owns land, operates hotels and runs construction companies. Retired generals are often offered lucrative positions on the boards of private companies. "It's not exactly the military-industrial complex in the American sense," says Carapico, "but it's close."
See how Egyptians' pets have been left to fend for themselves in the wake of the protests.
See TIME's Pictures of the Week.
Mubarak, mindful of the fact that the institution that had bequeathed him power could just as easily take it away, sought in the 1980s to maintain its loyalty by making the military a major stakeholder in the country's economy. That strategy was evident to U.S. diplomats in the last years of Mubarak's rule, when he was thought to be grooming his son Gamal as a possible successor. A 2008 diplomatic cable from U.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey, released by WikiLeaks, noted, "The regime, aware of the critical role the MOD [Ministry of Defense] can play in presidential succession, may well be trying to co-opt the military through patronage into accepting Gamal's path to the presidency." Scobey added, "The military helps to ensure regime stability and operates a large network of businesses, as it becomes a 'quasi-commercial' enterprise itself." In neutralizing the Egyptian military's kingmaker abilities though economic incentives, Mubarak was also ensuring that the military would do everything it could to protect those interests.
In fact, the military is so well protected that Egypt's citizens have no access to such basic information as force levels and budgets. Estimates on the percentage of the Egyptian economy controlled by the military range from 30% to 45%, but even those figures are up for debate. "That it is an economic force is certain," says Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations of the Middle East at the London School of Economics. "But how big, nobody knows. Not the U.S., and not even the World Bank," which once tried, and failed, to get the army to privatize some of its assets. "The Egyptian army is more involved in the economy than the Chinese army is involved in its own economy," says Gerges. "The army's intentions are good, but when the chips are down, good intentions will bow before the vested interests." (See TIME's special report "The Middle East in Revolt.")
A transition to a full-blown democracy may seem too risky for a military leadership that doesn't want to see precipitous change. Both Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Egypt's Defense Minister and the man at the head of the ruling Supreme Council, and Lieut. General Sami Hafez Enan, military chief of staff, are vestiges of the old regime. "Tantawi is as conservative as Mubarak, and he doesn't believe in economic or structural change," says Gerges. "He doesn't believe that Egyptians are ready for democracy."
It remains to be seen whether the Egyptians who overthrew Mubarak will accept the terms for a political transition outlined by the military. Newspaper publisher Hisham Kassem believes that the army will be true to its word, if not exactly true to the spirit of the democratic rebellion. "We will see a transition to democracy this year. But it will take five to 10 years before we see a democratically elected civilian government command the military." (Comment on this story.)
For the moment, that is enough for some protesters. "I know the army respects Egyptians because they did not fire on us in the square," says 18-year-old student Rania Magdy. "They want what is good for the Egyptian people." But who decides what is good for the Egyptian people remains to be determined in the coming months.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110214/wl_time/08599204885500
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